How to Start a Software Company 2.0

by Richard Rodger

       
 
Most People Are Below Average

The almighty Seth Godin says: "In every category, in every profession, half the people are below average.".

Bzzt! Wrong! Na-ah. Half the people in any industry are below the median. As in, half the people are below the half-way point (which is what the median is).

But I still think his main point is right. Let's fix the math.

In any industry you're going to have star performers. Programmers ten times better than the rest, etc. We all know the cliche. That drags the average up and beyond the main group of code-monkeys or office-slaves or whatever-you-call-your-grunts. And it drags the average higher than the median. Ability is a skewed distribution:

So Seth's argument about marketing to the below average applies even more he realises. More than half of the people in any industry are below average.

But there is a counter-point: the average is a lot higher than you think. Most jobs look easier on the outside than on the inside. Assuming you are more clever than most people is a dangerous game.

As for me, hey, I'm with the huddled masses. Who wants to be a Distinguished-Engineer anyway!

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Trackback URL: http://www.richardrodger.com/roller/trackback/richard/Weblog/most_people_are_below_average
Comments:

Nice title. Bound to upset the factinistas (credit:Stephen Colbert.

Posted by Roger on May 04, 2006 at 10:39 AM GMT+00:00
Website: http://www.irishblogs.ie/ #

Factinistas! love it...

Posted by Richard Rodger on May 04, 2006 at 11:16 AM GMT+00:00
Website: http://www.ricebridge.com #

Aren't you forgetting about the really dumb people who drag the average back the other way. In my experience, every superstar developer has a counterpart who can barely tell a bit from his butt.

Posted by Brian Glick on May 05, 2006 at 01:43 PM GMT+00:00
Website: http://jroller.com/page/hifi78 #

I've had a few of those too. And you could argue that their ability is actually negative, given their impact on the rest of the team. Still, you can't go as far negative as you can positive - people tend to notice arson and robbery (very effective productivity counter-measures!), so the graph does retain its skewness even in the face of a few class A muppets, simply because the half-life of a muppet is generally much shorter than that of a super-star.

Posted by Richard Rodger on May 05, 2006 at 07:58 PM GMT+00:00
Website: http://www.ricebridge.com #

I was taught that there were three kinds of average: mean, median, and mode. So when he said "average" he didn't say which one, and he was therefore being imprecise (but not wrong).

Posted by Wayland (59.167.187.191) on May 26, 2006 at 03:25 PM GMT+00:00 #

True. "average" is not 100% clear. But it mostly means "mean" in ordinary conversation. And, come to think of it, Excel calls the mean the "average", and I'd say Seth is fairly handy with Excel, so it's a reasonable interpretation of his statement.

And since I was splitting hairs to begin with, I can hardly complain when the same is done to me! :)

Posted by Richard Rodger on May 28, 2006 at 10:23 AM GMT+00:00
Website: http://www.ricebridge.com #

[Trackback] Richard Bodger in a thought provoking article, entitled Most people are below average , pulls up Seth Goldin on his stats when he claimed that "In every category, in every profession, half the people are below average."


Richard rebuts that cl...

Posted by Slingshot AF development blog on May 31, 2006 at 10:07 AM GMT+00:00
Website: http://jroller.com/page/ie?entry=are_software_developers_distributed_along #

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